Written by Sean Lee
November 24, 2009 at 05:40 GMT
Very early risers in Zurich by the looks of things. EUR/USD has fallen swiftly from 1.4956 towards its session lows around 40 after some fairly heavy selling from Swiss banks.
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Written by Sean Lee
November 24, 2009 at 05:28 GMT
This article from today’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung is saying that (if my German translation is accurate) the two main stakeholders in the WestLB are threatening to let the bank go insolvent. Firstly I don’t know if they are in a position to do so, secondly I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the article and thirdly this story has been out in the market for a few hours. Nevertheless, it is Asia and European traders may take a very different view to what Asia has.
Sell a break of 1.4925 with a trailing stop is the way to trade this particular issue I think.
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Written by Sean Lee
November 24, 2009 at 04:56 GMT
Asian markets fell across the board despite a very positive lead-in from Wall Street
The USD rebounded modestly, making gains against all the majors except for the JPY
Australian government and opposition are struggling to reach a compromise on an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and a failure to agree could potentially lead to a general election
Japanese government again stresses the importance of monetary policy in fighting deflation
Chinese think-tank calls for stricter capital controls
Gold has been steady despite the modest recovery in the USD, flat on the session at $1164.50/oz
USD/JPY is tied in between buy orders from semi-official names at 88.60 and corporate selling interest at 89.20/30. Trailing stops are seen either side of this range. USD/JPY opened at 89.05 but has drifted lower amid some signicant selling in the JPY crosses around the time of the Tokyo fix. Range: 88.82/89.06
AUD/USD opened close to its session highs at .9250 but the weak open on the Nikkei and some decent-sized selling interest in AUD/JPY at the Tokyo fix drove the pair lower, triggering trailing stops below .9210. The prospect of an early general election being called due to failure to reach agreement on an ETS has also encouraged some long positions to book profits. Range: .9196/.9255.
EUR/USD followed a similar trend to the AUD, falling as EUR/JPY selling at the fix dominated proceedings. Solid bids just below 1.4940 from two US banks has stalled the drop but stops are now noted below 25/30. Range: 1.4939/71.
Sterling has relatively quiet also but has once again fallen faster than the EUR with EUR/GBP gaining about 20 pips during the session. There were no major GBP-related announcements. Cable range; 1.6562/1.6618.
Markets: Nikkei -0.8%, HK -0.6%, Kospi -0.4%, Sydney -0.3%. Oil steady at $77.50/bbl.
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Written by Sean Lee
November 24, 2009 at 04:32 GMT
The EUR/USD has been trading between 1.4940/50 for the last few hours but that calm is likely to be disturbed when European trade gets underway. The German Ifo data usually adds some spice to the market and with bids at 1.4935/40 and heavy stops below 25/30, we are expecting a lively start to the session. The release of the Fed’s minutes from the last meeting and the revised numbers for US Q3 GDP should also liven things up later in the day.
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Written by Sam Diakou
November 24, 2009 at 03:33 GMT
Weighed on by unexpectedly weak Asian bourses, the AUDUSD is finding it hard to bounce off its lows. The support at 9180 looks like it maybe tested. If we break below that then its back to the low 91’s we go. It needs to break back above 9280 if we are to see the recent highs again.
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Written by Sam Diakou
November 24, 2009 at 03:10 GMT
Hearing there are at least 2 good US names buying under 1.4940. The earlier attempt to push for stops sub 1.4930 failed, running into the buyers sub 40. The 20 pip bounce from the low has seen some weak intraday shorts cut their positions. The longer we hold above 1.4830, the more the chance of a short squeeze into the European session.
Watch 1.4830 on the downside and 1.5020 topside.
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Written by Sam Diakou
November 24, 2009 at 02:25 GMT
Japan’s FinMin, Fujii, has said that the weakness in demand cannot be revived with just fiscal policy alone and that monetary policy is the key to fighting deflation.
Nothing new, no change in USDJPY.
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